With a rags-to-riches story, pots of cash, and serious brand recognition, Mr. Gou is a charismatic businessman. According to observers in Taipei, Mr Gou would have a good chance against the governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) if he were the only candidate. He isn’t.

The opposition vote in the January 2024 presidential election will instead be split three ways due to his candidacy.

When there are already two opposition candidates vying to unseat the incumbent party in a winner-takes-all system, adding a third is unlikely to help.

This scenario illustrates the “law of holes”, which says that you should stop digging if you’re in a hole and it’s difficult to get out. Moreover, Taiwan’s opposition appears to be digging its own grave in terms of elections.

On Monday, Mr Guo announced his candidacy for an election with profound implications far beyond Taiwan. In a region that is becoming increasingly militarised and threatened by Beijing, the self-governed island will elect a new president.

He first sought to become the candidate of Taiwan’s main right-of-center party, the old nationalist KMT (Kuomintang). In contrast to the United States, he failed.

Mr Gou quit the KMT in disgust after the party chose another candidate. The KMT isn’t Mr Gou’s only problem. The Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) is another charismatic populist party in Taiwan led by Ko Wen-je. Former Taipei mayor Ko is currently running second in polls. Among young Taiwanese voters, he is doing particularly well.

Wealth and business success are not Mr Gou’s only selling points. It is based on his experience working in and with China.

Foxconn, or Hon Hai industries, became the world’s largest electronics manufacturer by combining Taiwanese engineering know-how with skilled Chinese labor. Tens of thousands of young Chinese were recruited to work in Mr Gou’s factories in southern China during the 1980s and 1990s.

As a result of this model’s success, Apple eventually outsourced much of the production of MacBooks and iPhones to Foxconn. The deal made Foxconn Taiwan’s largest company and Mr Gou its richest entrepreneur.

He says he can now use his experience investing and working in China to protect Taiwan’s security. According to Terry Gou, Taiwan should not become another Ukraine. In announcing his candidacy, he said he would lead Taiwan “back from the abyss of war with China”.

China is not the only country that sees the threat from China as increasingly perilous. Beijing has increased its military operations around the island significantly in the last year.

Chinese troops are practising for what looks like an invasion of Taiwan’s beaches in a highly produced propaganda video released last week by the People’s Liberation Army.